I would really prefer not having to write this post. The election results are in and my depression wasn’t mitigated at all. I have a headache now as well.
Anyway, let’s get down to business then. I will take it that the players are already known, so a re-introduction isn’t necessary. The results can be found here (or here - Wikipedia offering a clearer picture) - plus it hurts just thinking about them, it would really pain me to reproduce them here again.
So before we proceed with the bad news and the catastrophic scenarios let us first inspect the good tidings, limited in number though they may be:
1) First good news is that the Communist Party of Slovakia and the jokers from the Free Forum didn’t get into the parliament.
2) The strong showing of Prime Minister’s party Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party, though expected, wasn’t really expected to be that strong.
3) The electoral collapse of Vladimír Mečiar’s party, which used to win the elections, now ended fifth with 8,7 % of the votes.
The bad news are:
1) I was appalled by the strong result of the opposition SMER – Social Democracy, though it was to be expected, I hoped it would be a lesser number than the 29,1% they eventually received. Robert Fico’s populist demagoguery paid off.
2) Also I was disgusted by the strong showing for the Slovak National Party which received 11,7% of the vote. Ján Slota’s vulgar antics coupled with only one program goal: “getting the Hungarians out of the government” paid off as well.
3) I expected the Christian Democrats to fare better, 8,3% leaves much to be desired, not a loss, but certainly a disappointment for them and for the Right.
With the six parties in parliament known the following is only a cursory reading on the various possible coalitions; I will deal only with the most likely in my opinion, a rather hasty and scant account at best.
Coalition No. 1 "The Centrist Coalition AKA Why Can’t We Be Friends?". (SMER-SMK-KDH) This will probably the first coalition Robert Fico will attempt to build. Along with his SMER - Social Democracy it would contain the Christian Democrats and the Hungarian Coalition Party. Although right-off-center, the Hungarians and Christian Democrats would be reliable and internationally acceptable partners for the leftist SMER. But this would also mean necessary compromises which wouldn’t allow SMER to follow through with all their potential zany leftwing schemes. On the other hand forming a government with the leftist SMER would dent the rightist credit of the Christian Democrats and the Hungarians while betraying the trust of their voters.
Coalition No. 1b "The Slovak Centrist Coalition AKA an Odious Oddity". (SMER-SNS-KDH) Instead of the Hungarians, the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats could be joined by the Nationalists. This remains an unlikely option, since even if the Christian Democrats would overcome their misgivings about the Socialists, cooperating with the extreme Nationalists as well could prove to be too hard to swallow.
Coalition No. 2 "The Real Horror Show AKA We Are Proper Fucked!". (SMER-SNS-HZDS) Social Democrats joined with Nationalists and Mečiar’s HZDS. All three, of course, would be extremely happy to be part of a governing coalition. This fiendish coalition would be plausible should Fico lose all pretences and scruples and proclaim: “to hell with international acceptability, who needs it anyway”, which after the Polish case wouldn’t really be that surprising and wouldn’t really cause more than a few raised eyebrows abroad. This coalition could also really force me to reconsider my policy toward relocation and travel in general.
Coalition No. 3 "The Lesser Evil AKA a Curious Continuity". (SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS) In the current situation this would be the least terrible option, leaving SMER (and as a bonus also the Nationalists) once again in the opposition. But it depends on too many ifs and maybes. If the Christian Democrats were willing to make a truce with the "betraying" Mikuláš Dzurinda; If the Hungarians, Christian Democrats and SDKU were willing to accept HZDS and maybe even Mečiar as a partner – something most unlikely, then if perhaps Vladimír Mečiar were willing to step aside, making his last (and first as well) statesman’s gesture to allow to overcome mutual distrust and possible frictions between HZDS and the rest of the coalition, maybe then such a coalition would be possible. It would require a lot of careful manoeuvring, negotiations and concessions, but in terms of continuing and preserving in the reform process it would probably be the best available option.
Coalition No. 4 "The Big Bad Coalition AKA Are you fucking kidding me!?" (SMER-SDKU) SMER entering a coalition with their neo-liberal archenemy responsible for “pauperization” of Slovakia!? Slovak Democratic and Christian Union entering a coalition with a Bolshevik demagogue!? WTF? Why even contemplate it? Indeed, why…
As you see there is no pretty alternative, they vary from bad to worse. I would like to end this tirade with something profound yet all I can think of is the classic’s dictum: Merdre!
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